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ARLINGTON, Virginia, 3 October 2011
Dr. J. Davidson Frame, UMT Academic Dean, PMI Fellow, delivered a presentation titled "Black Swan or White? Or Possibly Gray?" at the Project Management Institute New York City Chapter (PMINYC) on Oct 3, 2011. The PMINYC is one of the largest PMI chapters with about 3,000 members from over 300 companies.
In his thought-provoking book, The Black Swan , Nassim Nichloas Taleb warns us that in managing risk, we are asking for trouble if we ignore dealing with low-probability, high-impact events -- so-called Black Swans. Coming from the financial sector, he focuses particularly on surprise events that can serve to undo banks, investments houses, and even whole economies.
In his presentation, Dr. J. Davidson Frame examines the premises of Black Swan events to see the extent to which they are truly unpredictable and unmanageable. Through the analysis of recent, high-visibility Black Swan events (including the Toyota car-acceleration event of Winter/Spring 2010; the Fukushima tsunami and nuclear plant disaster of March 2011; and the China Bullet Train crash of July 2011) he shows how risk identification, diligent risk impact analysis, careful risk response planning, and diligent risk monitoring and control can help you handle Black Swans, as well as more conventional risk scenarios, in the management of projects.
This presentation is free to view at: http://www.slideshare.net/umtweb/black-swans.
Dr. J. Davidson Frame delivering the presentation at the PMINYC
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